1. Overview
Recent surveys from several reputable polling institutes show a clear rise in support for the AfD that is closely linked to growing public dissatisfaction with the current federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The pattern is visible both nationally and in key regional contests, and it reflects broader concerns about coalition stability, leadership approval, and handling of policy issues such as the health reform.
Key facts at a glance
- National snapshots show the AfD reaching record support levels in recent polls.
- In one regional snapshot, the AfD leads with 41% while the main center-right party is at 26% and smaller parties fall below the threshold.
- Public evaluation of government performance is unusually negative: roughly seven in ten rate the government as rather bad.
- Approval for the chancellor has dropped to historically low levels for a first-term leader.
- Nearly half of respondents expect a premature breakdown of the coalition.
2. Poll trends and numbers
Multiple recent polls paint a consistent picture: the AfD has climbed to its highest support since the last federal election and now competes with or surpasses the traditional large parties. Different surveys report slightly different figures, but the direction of change — rising AfD support and declining confidence in the governing coalition — is the same across them.
| Snapshot | Party | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| National (latest) | AfD | 27% |
| National (latest) | Center-right bloc | 25% |
| National (latest) | Social democrats | 12% |
| Alternate national survey | AfD | 24% |
| Alternate national survey | Center-right bloc | 25% |
| Alternate national survey | Social democrats | 15% |
| Alternate national survey | Greens | 12% |
| Regional (Saxony-Anhalt) | AfD | 41% |
| Regional (Saxony-Anhalt) | Center-right party | 26% |
| Regional (Saxony-Anhalt) | Greens | 4% |
| Regional (Saxony-Anhalt) | Other right-wing party | 4% |
| Context | AfD support has risen since the 2025 federal result of about 20.8% | |
Record highs and consistency
Across the various surveys, the AfD has repeatedly reached or approached record numbers since the 2025 baseline. Even when absolute figures differ slightly between polls, the upward trajectory is consistent, signaling a consolidation of voter shifts rather than a single-survey anomaly.
3. Why government disputes boost AfD support
Political infighting, public clashes between coalition partners, and slow or controversial policy reforms create fertile ground for opposition gains. Voters frustrated with perceived chaos or weak leadership often turn to parties that present themselves as clear alternatives, which benefits anti-establishment and right-wing options in this context.
Mechanisms at play
- Protest voting: disappointed or demobilized mainstream supporters cast ballots for a protest option.
- Perceived competence gap: visible internal attacks and management problems lower confidence in the government and its leadership.
- Policy backlash: contentious reforms—such as those in the health sector—can alienate swing and moderate voters.
- Media and public attention: prolonged disputes keep negative narratives in the spotlight, amplifying voter concerns about stability.
4. Regional case: Saxony-Anhalt
Saxony-Anhalt offers a stark example of the national trend: in the most recent regional snapshot the AfD leads decisively with around 41%, well ahead of the main center-right party at roughly 26%. Smaller parties, including the Greens and another right-wing list, are polling around 4% and risk falling below the parliamentary threshold, reshaping regional seat math.
What this means locally
A dominant result for the AfD in a state election would likely translate into stronger regional parliamentary influence and could further boost the party’s national momentum. It also raises questions about coalition options at the state level and about whether mainstream parties can regain trust before the next set of contests.
5. Political implications and outlook
The current mix of rising opposition support and falling government approval has concrete implications: coalition arithmetic becomes tighter, public expectations of an early breakdown have increased (nearly half now expect it), and the chancellor’s approval ratings have plunged. All of this creates pressure on party leaders to show competence, resolve disputes quickly, and deliver tangible policy results to stem further losses.
What to watch next
- Short-term poll developments: whether the AfD’s momentum stabilizes, grows, or retreats.
- Coalition management: credible conflict resolution and policy delivery can slow opposition gains.
- Leadership moves: changes in top-level party leadership or strategy could reshape voter perceptions.
- Regional elections: further strong regional performances by the AfD would reinforce national trends.
- Public reaction to policy outcomes, especially in health reform and other high-salience areas.
6. Conclusion
In short, the available evidence shows a clear link between governmental disputes and rising support for the AfD. Widespread dissatisfaction with coalition performance, low approval for the chancellor, and public concern over policy handling have combined to boost an opposition party that benefits from anti-establishment sentiment. Whether this trend continues will depend largely on how effectively the government can reduce visible internal conflict and restore voter confidence.
