When Will the Next Heatwave Arrive? This Summer’s Forecast

1. Short-term outlook: is the current heatwave over?

In the coming days and weeks Germany is expected to remain in a generally summer-hot to occasionally extremely hot weather pattern. The current heatwave that began in June with widespread 30°C temperatures and regional peaks close to 40°C is not yet clearly finished. Hot air from the southwest continues to feed a broad summer high over central Europe, bringing widespread daytime heat, tropical nights and some so-called “desert days” where very little relief arrives at night.

Causes of the sustained heat

The main driver is a strong, sometimes blocking high-pressure system over central Europe. When that high becomes very persistent and bulges in an omega-like shape, it traps warm air and prevents cool, moist Atlantic air from moving in. At the same time, dry conditions can reinforce daytime warming and local drought stress, so heat and dryness often amplify each other during these events.

What the numerical models are showing

Different numerical weather models produce a range of scenarios for the final days of June and the turn into July. Some model runs simulate extreme temperature spikes (with isolated scenarios even suggesting highs near or above 40°C in parts of Germany), while others keep peak values lower. The consistent message across models is: it will be hot, but the exact timing and amplitude of the next big heat peak are uncertain.

2. When could the next major heat peak arrive?

Forecasts point to several windows where a new heat peak could occur. Late June into the start of July is the most likely period for the next very warm phase. Some model scenarios sketch extreme single-day peaks around the middle or end of June, while other runs push the strongest heat toward mid-July. Regional risk is highest in the south and southwest, where repeated 30–35°C days and occasional near-40°C spikes are most plausible.

A key turning point: the start of July

Around the turn of the month there is a critical forecast uncertainty: if an Atlantic trough or low-pressure influence manages to push in between England, Scandinavia and Germany, it could break the heat and bring notably cooler conditions from about 2 July onward. In that scenario daytime highs would fall to mostly 17–23°C (with perhaps a brief 25–28°C in the southwest), and the very large positive temperature anomaly would shrink to a milder +2 to +4°C above normal. If the high-pressure system holds, the hot pattern would simply continue into early July and beyond.

Model spread and what it means

Different global models can disagree strongly for the same date: for the same day one model may show a hot column of air favoring 34°C at the surface, while another run predicts much weaker warmth. This model spread means forecasters treat exact peak dates as probabilistic: we can say the chance of more heat in the next 7–10 days is high, but the chance of a specific 40°C event is much lower and more uncertain.

3. Summer 2026 outlook: what the seasonal signals suggest

Looking beyond the immediate weeks, seasonal forecasts and several model ensembles point to an increased probability of a generally hot and at times dry summer. August in particular is highlighted by many seasonal runs as the month most likely to show a positive temperature anomaly. That does not mean every week will be stifling — rather that the overall odds favor warmer-than-average conditions across large parts of the country.

Early-month observations and regional differences

Monitoring data for July so far indicate a positive temperature anomaly compared with long-term climate averages. Some regions have been notably warmer — for example one analysis showed the warmest area averaging about 20.7°C while the coolest region averaged around 16.6°C. Rainfall through the early month was well below normal in many places, reinforcing the dry and warm impression.

What this means for the rest of summer

The seasonal tendency toward warmth raises the likelihood of multiple hot episodes across July and August. Forecast curves for mid-July show the potential for renewed rises into the upper 20s and low-to-mid 30s °C, especially in western and southwestern areas. However, the seasonal picture still allows for interruptions by cooler, wetter periods when Atlantic or northern systems push southward.

4. What to expect and how to prepare

Because precise timing remains uncertain beyond a week or so, the best approach is preparedness. National heat-warning maps and heat-stress indices will flag areas of strong or very strong heat stress in real time. Individuals and communities should follow local forecasts closely, especially if they are in regions forecast to reach 30–35°C or higher.

Practical heat-protection steps

1. Avoid direct sun during the hottest hours (midday to late afternoon).
2. Drink plenty of fluids and avoid alcohol in extreme heat.
3. Keep living spaces shaded and ventilated; use cooling strategies at night to prevent tropical nights.
4. Check on vulnerable people: older adults, very young children and those with chronic illness.
5. Follow local guidance on heat warnings and adapt outdoor plans when high heat is forecast.

5. Bottom line: probabilities, not certainties

In short: the probability of further hot phases through the end of June and into July is high, with regional peaks commonly in the 30–35°C range and isolated model scenarios allowing near-40°C extremes. A temporary cool-down around the start of July is a realistic possibility if an Atlantic trough arrives, but whether that break will be lasting is uncertain. For the rest of the summer the balance of model evidence favors a warmer-than-average season, yet exact dates for the “next heatwave” remain a matter of probability rather than certainty.