1. Early findings on the alleged US strike in Iran
Early investigation results indicate a possible US attack on a school in Iran, a development that highlights how quickly tensions have escalated. In recent days President Donald Trump has described massive US military operations — named Operation Epic Fury and Midnight Hammer — saying they struck Iran’s air force, naval assets (including the sinking of 51 ships), drone and rocket production sites and more than 5,000 targets. Trump frames these moves as removing a nuclear threat and striking regime leadership repeatedly.
What we know so far
Investigators report signs consistent with an attack on a school, but inquiries are still at an early stage and official conclusions may take time. The alleged strike is described in the context of wider US military actions that the US administration says were intended to degrade Iran’s military and weapons production capacity. The possible hit on a school raises concerns about civilian harm amid high-intensity strikes.
Political context and reactions
The Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten has criticized President Trump for what it calls risk-taking and self-aggrandizement, quoting him as saying “Only I can do it.” At the same time, Trump has emphasized measures to secure oil flow, including lifting some sanctions temporarily and escorting tankers, arguing these steps will help lower fuel prices. He also repeatedly accuses Iran of decades of funding terrorism, a justification he presents for the military campaign. These dynamics — strong military action, disputed targets such as a school, and aggressive political rhetoric — increase regional and international tensions in 2026.
2. Irregular migration to the EU has fallen
Irregular migration into the European Union decreased significantly in 2025. Frontex recorded 166,900 unauthorized border crossings, down about 25% from the previous period, while the UNHCR reports 153,500 arrivals across the Mediterranean, a drop of roughly 23%. Country-level changes include Greece with 47,800 arrivals (down 23%, largely on Crete), Spain with 54,800 (down 14%), a sharp fall in the West Balkans (down 35%), and Cyprus down 63%. Italy remained comparatively stable with about 66,000 arrivals. Asylum applications across Europe fell to roughly 822,000, a decline of 19%. Top countries of origin remain Venezuela, Afghanistan and Syria.
| Metric | 2025 figure (change) |
|---|---|
| Frontex: irregular border crossings | 166,900 (-25%) |
| UNHCR: Mediterranean arrivals | 153,500 (-23%) |
| Greece (mainly Crete) | 47,800 (-23%) |
| Spain | 54,800 (-14%) |
| Italy | 66,000 (stable) |
| West Balkans | change -35% |
| Cyprus | change -63% |
| Asylum applications (EU) | 822,000 (-19%) |
| Top origin countries | Venezuela, Afghanistan, Syria |
EU policy response
To manage irregular migration, the EU is implementing new measures under GEAS from 2026 to harmonize asylum rules. Authorities are expanding Eurodac to address secondary movements, planning return centres and discussing third-country solutions coordinated through Frontex. These steps aim to reduce irregular entries while improving the management of asylum claims and returns across member states.
3. What to do about high petrol and fuel prices
High fuel and petrol prices are a major political and economic concern. President Trump has proposed measures such as temporarily relaxing some sanctions and using military protection to secure oil shipping routes, including escorting tankers, with the stated goal of increasing supply and lowering prices. He argues these steps will bring quick relief for consumers, contrasting with earlier crisis moments that he says benefited rival producers.
Possible effects and criticisms
- Short-term price relief: easing sanctions and protecting tankers can increase oil flow and reduce immediate upward pressure on petrol prices.
- Security and escalation risk: military convoys and stronger naval presence can increase regional tensions and risk unintended clashes.
- Political trade-offs: sanction relief or selective enforcement may be criticized for rewarding or empowering targeted regimes.
- Temporary vs long-term solutions: supply-side moves can help quickly, but lasting price stability usually requires diversified energy strategy and market measures.
- Short-term: temporary sanction relief and convoy protection to bring immediate supply to markets.
- Medium-term: diplomatic efforts to stabilise key shipping lanes and agreements with producing countries to manage exports.
- Long-term: investment in alternative energy, efficiency and diversified supply chains to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.
