Overview
In 2026 the German gas station association Tankstellen-Interessensverband (TIV) warns of further large fuel price increases following the Iran war. Petrol and diesel have already passed the €2.00 per liter mark, and the TIV expects prices to climb to €2.50 or more per liter if current developments continue. The association says that rising crude oil and oil price pressures from the conflict are being passed on to consumers, and that oil companies are transferring high raw material costs disproportionately to retail fuel prices.
Why prices may rise further
The main reason given by the TIV is the higher price of crude oil caused by the Iran war and related supply worries. When global oil prices increase, refiners and oil companies may raise pump prices. The association criticizes that these increases are not always passed on in a proportional way, which can make fuel more expensive for motorists than necessary. In addition, higher wholesale costs hit stores and independent operators along the supply chain.
Immediate effects on drivers
- Higher direct fuel costs: drivers already see prices above €2.00 per liter and face the risk of prices reaching €2.50 or more per liter.
- Budget pressure: households and commuters may need to adjust spending or mobility choices due to higher petrol and diesel prices.
- Uncertainty: short-term price volatility linked to the conflict can make planning difficult for businesses and consumers.
Impact on gas stations and the industry
The TIV also highlights that gas stations are under increasing economic pressure. Many stations are suffering from low commissions on fuel sales and declining shop revenues. When shop incomes fall, overall profitability of a station decreases, even while wholesale fuel costs rise. This squeeze can make it harder for small and independent operators to stay in business.
Consequences for service stations
- Lower profit margins from fuel because commissions and wholesale-retail spreads are tight.
- Reduced shop turnover, which historically helps cover fixed costs of a station.
- Higher risk of closures or reduced services at stations with thin margins.
Political and regulatory response
Politicians have reacted to rising pump prices by announcing cartel-law reviews and by debating measures such as temporary reductions in energy taxes. The TIV reports that authorities are initiating antitrust and cartellrechtliche Prüfungen to check whether pricing behavior is fair. At the same time, public debate is focusing on short-term relief for consumers and longer-term market transparency.
What regulators and politicians are considering
- Cartel and competition reviews to investigate whether oil companies and retailers are passing on costs as expected.
- Discussion of temporary energy tax relief to lower the pump price for motorists.
- Calls for greater transparency in how wholesale and retail fuel prices are set.
Market outlook and scenarios
The outlook depends on developments in the Iran war, global crude oil markets, and how oil companies choose to set pump prices. If geopolitical tensions persist and crude oil remains expensive, the scenario described by the TIV — fuel prices reaching €2.50 or more per liter — is plausible. Conversely, a de-escalation or measures to ease taxes could moderate prices.
| Scenario | Possible pump price (per liter) |
|---|---|
| Current situation (2026, ongoing tensions) | Over €2.00 |
| Worsening conflict / sustained high crude oil prices | €2.50 or more |
| De-escalation or tax relief | Price stabilization or moderate decline |
| Key drivers | Crude oil prices, corporate pricing behavior, tax measures |
How consumers can respond
- Plan trips and combine errands to reduce fuel consumption.
- Drive smoothly and maintain your vehicle to improve fuel efficiency.
- Compare local fuel prices and choose more economical filling stations when possible.
- Consider car-sharing, public transport, or other alternatives for longer journeys.
Conclusion
The TIV’s warning makes clear that fuel prices could rise further in 2026 because of the Iran war and high crude oil costs. At the same time, gas stations face falling shop revenues and low commissions, which adds strain to the sector. Political and regulatory responses — including antitrust checks and discussions about energy tax relief — are under way, and consumers should be prepared for continued price volatility. Clear communication, careful monitoring of pricing, and targeted measures could help limit the impact on motorists and small operators.
