1. Overview: Storm ‘Elli’ and the Grenzwetterlage
A powerful low-pressure system named “Elli” is creating a classic “Grenzwetterlage” across Central Europe: very cold polar air from the northeast is colliding with much milder Atlantic air from the southwest. That clash forms a sharp boundary across the country and produces a mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, and strong east to northeast winds. This situation will lead to very different weather over relatively short distances, from deep cold and snow in the north and east to milder, rainy conditions in the south and southwest.
Temperatures are forecast to sit roughly between -7 and 0 °C in the cold air north and east, while the south and southwest warm to about +4 to +10 °C. Because the low rotates counterclockwise, cold continental air is fed into northern and eastern regions while warm maritime air pushes into southern areas. The result is a brisante weather setup with a clear risk of hazardous travel conditions, ice, and rapid changes in precipitation type.
2. Expected impacts and hazards
Snowfall amounts and distribution
Widespread snow is expected north of a rough Bremen–Dresden line. Forecast simulations indicate a broad corridor from Dresden via Magdeburg to Bremen with typical new-snow totals of 5 to 10 cm, locally 10 to 20 cm, and in lee or orographic enhancement areas up to around 40 cm. Large parts of northern Germany, especially areas that remain in the cold air north of the low, can expect the heaviest and longest-lasting snowfall, creating deep snow accumulation and potential snowdrifts.
Freezing rain and ice in the transition zone
Where the warm, moist air overrides a cold surface layer — mainly in the central transition belt — precipitation can fall as freezing rain or freezing drizzle. This ice accretion can create invisible, extremely slippery surfaces and significant hazards for roads, sidewalks, and overhead lines. Short but intense episodes of sleet and glaze ice are likely during the phase when warm air moves over the cold ground.
Strong east winds, gusts and snowdrifts
An icy east to northeast wind will strengthen on the northern flank of the low. Widespread gusts of 60 to 70 km/h are possible inland, with coastal gusts approaching 90 km/h. Those winds combined with loose, powdery snow will produce hazardous snowdrifts and reduced visibility—localized blizzard-like conditions are possible. The combination of strong east winds and heavy snowfall raises the risk of road blockages and drifting that can make many routes impassable.
Transport, infrastructure and public safety impacts
The main dangers stem from the mix of heavy snow, drifting, and episodes of ice. Expect major disruptions to road traffic, regional rail, and local public transport during peak snowfall and freeze phases. Power outages can occur where ice accumulation or strong gusts affect overhead lines or trees. Emergency services and winter maintenance will be under pressure; authorities advise avoiding unnecessary travel, especially during the morning and evening peaks.
3. Timing and forecast evolution
The precipitation field spreads from southwest to northeast in the night into Friday and continues through Friday. By morning the snow limit may reach roughly the Hamburg–Dresden line, with the most challenging conditions for the morning commute from Lower Saxony to Saxony. Snow bands will slowly shift, but the cold sector in the north and northeast can produce persistent snow showers and localized squalls.
As the low center moves over central parts of the country through Saturday, the split between the warm southwest and the cold north becomes more pronounced. Snow may briefly change to rain in western and central areas where warmer air intrudes; during that transition freezing rain and sleet are particular hazards. When the low drifts southward by Saturday night, the storm field weakens somewhat, but cold polar air remains and clears skies overnight can lead to very low temperatures: some forecasts indicate night lows down to -15 to -25 °C in places with snow cover, and daytime highs near -10 °C in the coldest regions.
4. What you should do — practical safety advice
- Avoid travel if possible: Stay home during heavy snowfall, freezing rain, and peak wind, especially during the morning and evening commute.
- Prepare your vehicle: If travel is unavoidable, carry warm clothing, a blanket, food, water, a fully charged phone, a shovel, traction aids and an ice scraper. Ensure tires and antifreeze are appropriate for winter conditions.
- Stay informed: Monitor official weather warnings and traffic updates from national meteorological services and local transport authorities.
- Protect property and utilities: Secure loose objects, clear gutters where safe, and be prepared for potential short-term power outages. Avoid standing near trees during strong gusts.
- Look after vulnerable people and animals: Check on elderly neighbors and ensure pets and livestock have shelter, food and unfrozen water.
5. Monitor updates and trusted resources
Forecasts and warnings can change quickly in this dynamic setup. Rely on official weather warnings and regional traffic bulletins for the latest, location-specific advice. High-resolution short-range models and local authority announcements will give the best guidance on snowfall totals, wind gusts, and freezing-rain hotspots.
- Official national meteorological and warning services for up-to-date alerts
- Regional traffic and railway service portals for delays, cancellations and detours
- Local municipality pages for road closures, school and public-service notices
- Reliable weather apps and short-range nowcasting products for site-specific snowfall and wind data
6. Forecast uncertainty and short-term outlook
While all scenarios agree on a significant winter storm with heavy snow, freezing rain and strong east winds, exact amounts and the position of the cold/warm boundary can shift between model runs. Some simulations favor persistent cold conditions and extended snow cover across large parts of northern and eastern regions; others indicate a faster mild-air intrusion in the west and south with more rain and less prolonged ice. In short: prepare for heavy snow, possible ice events, and strong winds now, and expect refinements to the forecast as observations and model updates arrive.
