1. Overview: A Chilly January 2026
January 2026 is shaping up as the winteriest month in years for Germany, according to multiple forecasts and seasonal indicators. A major atmospheric event has split the polar vortex and favored a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, allowing cold air to surge southward from the Arctic and Russia. This pattern increases the likelihood of prolonged cold spells, widespread frost, and frequent snow events across large parts of the country.
Forecasts suggest sustained cold and snow with typical daytime temperatures around -1 to +2 °C in the north and -4 to 0 °C in the south, while nighttime lows may plunge to -15 °C or lower in some inland and elevated areas. Lake-effect snow and coastal snow squalls are a particular risk near the North Sea, and turbulent weather phases with snow, freezing rain, and strong winds are expected to begin around the 7th of January.
2. Key Weather Drivers
Understanding why this winter may be particularly cold helps explain the expected impacts. Two large-scale phenomena stand out: a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that disrupted the polar vortex, and a tendency toward a negative NAO. Together these set the stage for repeated cold-air outbreaks into central Europe.
SSW and the Polar Vortex
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming can weaken or split the polar vortex high in the atmosphere. When that happens, cold air that is normally confined to polar regions can be displaced southward. This winter’s SSW has helped create conditions favorable to direct cold-air intrusions into Europe, increasing the frequency and persistence of frosty conditions.
Negative NAO and Blocking Patterns
A negative NAO phase typically means higher pressure over the North Atlantic and more meridional flow, which promotes cold outbreaks across Europe. Blocking patterns can prolong cold spells and increase the chance of extreme low temperatures; long-range assessments indicate a non-negligible chance of strong cold intrusions in late winter, including scenarios with temperatures near -20 °C in extreme cases (probability estimates vary).
Lake-Effect Snow and Local Amplifiers
When cold continental or Arctic air moves over relatively warmer coastal or inland water bodies, it can pick up moisture and create intense, localized snowfall known as lake-effect snow. In this situation, coastal regions along the North Sea and adjacent lowlands are at risk for heavy, very localized snow squalls and rapidly changing conditions.
3. Forecast Timeline and Regional Outlook
Forecast trends point to an active and changeable January. Turbulent weather phases with snow, ice rain and storms are likely to start around the 7th of January. From about the 8th of January onward, the country could see a split pattern: strong winter storms and snow in northern coastal areas while the southern regions may experience temporary milder spells and thawing at times.
- North and coast: increased risk of lake-effect snow, blizzards and rapidly changing conditions.
- Central uplands and Alps: elevated snow and avalanche potential, prolonged snow cover.
- West: icing and glatteis risks during freezing rain episodes.
- South: generally colder but with intermittent thawing periods expected later in January and into February.
Regionally, the highest snow risk is expected in the Mittelgebirge (central uplands) and the Alps, where accumulations and avalanche risk can increase. The western lowlands are vulnerable to glazing and black ice during freezing rain events. Nights will be the coldest time, with inland valleys and sheltered areas most likely to see extremes down to -15 °C or colder.
4. Expected Impacts and Hazards
Cold and snowy conditions bring a range of impacts. Transportation can be severely disrupted by heavy snowfall, icy roads, and reduced visibility. Freezing rain and glaze can cause fallen trees and power outages, while heavy snow loads threaten infrastructure and increase avalanche risk in mountain areas. The combination of cold temperatures and storms also raises heating demand and can strain public services.
Vulnerable groups—older people, those with mobility issues, and outdoor workers—face higher health risks in prolonged cold. Agricultural sectors may struggle with livestock welfare and crop exposure, and intermittent thaws followed by refreezing can make recovery and cleanup more difficult.
5. Practical Advice and Preparation
With a cold and snowy month likely, practical preparation reduces risk and inconvenience. Prioritize safety for travel, homes and public spaces, and plan for potential service interruptions.
- Check and winterize vehicles: antifreeze, winter tires, emergency kit with blankets, food and water.
- Prepare your home: insulate pipes, ensure heating systems are serviced, stock essential supplies in case of outages.
- Stay informed: follow local weather warnings and expect rapid changes, especially near coasts and mountains.
- Take care outdoors: dress in warm layers, limit time outside during extreme cold, and watch for signs of hypothermia and frostbite.
- Protect vulnerable people and animals: check on elderly neighbors and ensure pets and livestock have adequate shelter and food.
6. Outlook and Final Notes
The overall picture for early 2026 points to a notably wintry January driven by large-scale atmospheric disturbances. While many models and forecasts converge on a cold, snowy month, there are contrasting views that favor a more variable winter. That uncertainty means conditions can change quickly: an icy, snowy stretch could be followed by milder intervals and then renewed cold.
Looking beyond January, February is expected to be more variable, with a realistic chance of milder conditions but also a non-trivial probability of renewed cold snaps. March may bring wet and chilly weather as the season transitions. The best approach is to prepare for winter hazards now, stay flexible in travel and outdoor plans, and monitor local forecasts for timely updates.
