1. Executive summary
Since Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government marked its first anniversary in May 2025, official asylum applications have fallen sharply. Yet opinion polls show continued growth in support for the AfD, raising the question: has the government’s announced migration turnaround failed? This article looks at the numbers, the measures taken, public perception, and the remaining challenges shaping migration policy and the rise of right‑wing politics.
2. The hard numbers — what changed
Statistical and policy summaries paint a mixed picture. Key figures cited by recent analyses show large drops in asylum applications and some increases in removals, but also high totals of people still obliged to leave and continued high family reunification visa counts. These concrete figures help explain why outcomes appear successful in some respects but incomplete in others.
| Indicator | Figure (latest) |
|---|---|
| Asylum applications (2025) | 113,000 (about half of 230,000 in 2024) |
| Deportations / removals (2025) | 23,000 (up from 20,000) |
| People obliged to leave | 230,000 |
| Family reunification visas (latest) | 110,000 |
| AfD vote share (last federal election) | 20.8% of second votes |
| Ukraine refugees (cumulative) | about 1,000,000 |
| Trends noted | Asylum numbers down (-51% vs 2024, -66% vs 2023); Q1 2026 shows early drop in deportations |
3. What the government says it achieved
The coalition highlights clear reductions in asylum applications and structural reforms. The CDU/CSU interim assessment emphasizes a large percentage fall in asylum numbers compared with 2024 and 2023, the abolition and renaming of citizen income support (Bürgergeld renamed to Grundsicherung), and steps toward implementing a new EU asylum system with faster border decisions and so-called secondary migration centres.
Official framing and statements
Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt declared that the ‘migration turnaround is working’, and Chancellor Merz said many problems were ‘largely solved’. These statements underline the official narrative that policy measures are having an effect on asylum flows and border management.
4. Why AfD support can still rise despite falling asylum numbers
Public opinion does not respond only to headline asylum application totals. Several factors can keep right‑wing populist support high even when numbers decrease: visible unresolved cases, perceptions of weak enforcement, crime narratives, and emotional responses to migration-related issues.
Unresolved enforcement and visible backlogs
Although deportations increased to 23,000 in 2025, 230,000 people remain officially obliged to leave. Critics note that the gap between decisions and actual removals sustains a perception of weak enforcement. Q1 2026 signs of declining deportations heighten concerns about implementation.
Family reunification and secondary migration
Family reunification continues at a high level — about 110,000 visas — and secondary migration pressures remain an issue. These factors feed public anxieties that policies have not fully closed migration routes, even while first-time asylum numbers fall.
Crime, perception, and political framing
Concerns about public safety factor into votes. Data cited in some analyses show a disproportionate share of suspects in violent crimes compared with population share (43% of suspects while migrants represent roughly 15% of the population in those accounts). Warnings about rising right‑wing extremism and antisemitism also shape the political landscape, increasing polarization and giving traction to parties that emphasize migration in their messaging.
5. Criticism, missing pieces and calls for reform
Observers who review the overall picture praise some achievements but stress remaining policy gaps. Analysts such as the Corrigenda review call for more federal centralization and pressure from the Chancellor on the Länder to improve enforcement and reduce backlogs. Other voices raise questions about privacy, legal safeguards, and handling of large refugee groups such as those from Ukraine.
Centralization and implementation
Calls for stronger federal coordination focus on faster, more reliable deportation procedures, and better use of resources to lower the number of people who remain obliged to leave. Critics argue that political declarations alone are insufficient without concrete administrative capacity and intergovernmental cooperation.
Legal and humanitarian concerns
Alongside enforcement debates, commentators highlight the need to protect personal rights and to manage humanitarian obligations responsibly. Any durable migration policy must balance enforcement, due process, international protection duties, and effective integration measures.
6. Conclusion — a partial success, not a finished turnaround
The evidence shows real successes: asylum applications have fallen substantially and some increases in removals occurred. At the same time, unresolved issues — a large group of people obliged to leave, high family reunification numbers, implementation gaps in deportations, and public safety concerns — continue to feed dissatisfaction and sustain AfD support. The result is not a clean migration turnaround but a partial progress story with important hurdles remaining.
For policymakers, the path forward is clear in broad terms: convert reductions in arrivals into durable, enforceable outcomes; address family reunification policy and secondary migration; strengthen federal‑state coordination; and counter extremist narratives while protecting rights. Only by tackling both figures and perceptions can the government hope to reduce political volatility around migration.
