Germany’s Population Decline Accelerates

1. Current outlook: Germany’s accelerating population decline

Recent forecasts from the Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt) and analyses by the ifo Institute show that Germany’s population is set to shrink much more than previously expected. Instead of the modest one percent decline that was once projected, current projections now point to a reduction of roughly ten percent by 2070. The 2022 census (Zensus 2022) found a lower starting population of 81.9 million, which has accelerated the long-term downward trend.

Key headline figures

• Projected population decline to 2070: about 10% (much larger than earlier 1% estimate).
• Zensus 2022 baseline: 81.9 million residents (lower than previously assumed).
• Population in 2025 fell by ~100,000 to 83.5 million.
• Birth rate (fertility rate): record low of 1.35 children per woman.
• Births in 2025: around 650,000; deaths: roughly 1,000,000.
• Net migration: halved to about 220,000–260,000 in 2025 (down from 430,000 in 2024).

2. Why the population is shrinking

The demographic change is driven by a combination of very low fertility, an aging population with rising mortality, and shifting migration dynamics. These factors interact to produce a net population decline despite continued immigration.

Low birth rates and fertility

Births have fallen to record lows. The total fertility rate is about 1.35 children per woman—well below the replacement level of 2.1. That low fertility led to only around 650,000 births in 2025, and analysts expect about 150,000 fewer births by 2030 compared with current trends. Fewer births mean fewer young people entering the population in the coming decades, which accelerates the aging process and long-term population decline.

Mortality and aging

Deaths have risen as the population ages. In 2025 there were roughly one million deaths, which outnumbered births by a large margin. For the first time since 2020, the excess of deaths over births exceeded the gains from migration, contributing directly to a net population drop in 2025.

Migration: still positive, but weaker

Net migration remains positive but has weakened sharply. After a net inflow of about 430,000 people in 2024, net migration in 2025 fell to roughly 220,000–260,000. Even if net migration continues at an annual level of about 250,000, current analyses indicate that this will not be enough to offset falling births and the ageing-driven rise in deaths, so migration alone will not reverse the long-term shrinkage.

3. Regional disparities: who is most affected?

The population decline will not be evenly distributed across Germany. Regional disparities are expected to grow, with some states losing large shares of their population while major cities and city-states may continue to gain residents.

East vs. urban areas

Analysts project that the large, predominantly rural states in eastern Germany will experience the steepest declines—losing up to about 22% of their population by 2070. In contrast, city-states and major urban centers are likely to remain relatively stable or even grow, concentrating younger workers and economic activity in a smaller number of places. This leads to sharper regional imbalances in workforce availability, public services and local economies.

4. Economic and social consequences

The accelerating population decline and aging will have wide-ranging effects. Many forecasts and experts warn about mounting pressure on labor supply, public finances and social systems, while also pointing to areas of demand and potential growth related to an older population.

Workforce and skills shortages

Falling numbers of working-age people create risks of skilled labour shortages across sectors. This can slow economic growth, increase recruitment and training costs, and make it harder for businesses to fill critical roles.

Pressure on pensions, health and long-term care

An older population increases demand for healthcare and long-term care services while shrinking the ratio of workers to retirees. That combination puts pressure on pension systems and social spending and may lead to higher public contributions or taxes unless systems are rebalanced.

Opportunities in care and ageing infrastructure

At the same time, demographic change creates demand-driven opportunities in health care, elder care, assisted living and related infrastructure. Investments in these areas can address needs created by ageing while generating jobs and services aligned with the changing population structure.

5. What this means for policy and planning

ifo director Joachim Ragnitz warns: ‘Der verstärkte Rückgang und die Alterung der Bevölkerung müssen schon heute bei politischen Entscheidungen mit Langzeitwirkung, beispielsweise bei Gesundheit und Pflege, berücksichtigt werden’. In plain terms, long-term demographic change must be part of policy decisions today, especially in health, care and social policy.

Policymakers and planners will need to account for a smaller and older population when making decisions about public spending, regional development, labour market policy and social services. The combination of demographic pressure and uneven regional effects calls for planning that is both national in scope and sensitive to local needs.