1. January 2026: Key figures at a glance
In January 2026 the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) decided on 25,191 asylum-related cases and recorded 7,649 first-time asylum applications. The number of first-time applications rose slightly compared with December 2025 (6,531), while the total number of decisions in January 2026 was a little below the monthly average for 2025, when the BAMF decided on over 310,930 applications for the year.
| Indicator | Value (January 2026 or 2025 summary) |
|---|---|
| Decisions by BAMF (Jan 2026) | 25,191 |
| First-time asylum applications (Jan 2026) | 7,649 |
| First-time applications (Dec 2025) | 6,531 |
| Total BAMF decisions (2025) | 310,930 (year total) |
| First-time applications (full year 2025) | 113,236 |
| Pending cases at end of 2025 | 101,606 |
2. Recent trends and background (context from 2025)
January 2026 must be understood against the wider backdrop of 2025, a year that saw a marked fall in first-time asylum applications. The decline brought first-time applications in 2025 down to 113,236—the lowest level since 2013 (with the exception of 2020). Several factors contributed to this development.
Causes of the decline in first-time asylum applications
- Stricter border controls and enforcement measures
- Legal tightening and changes in asylum-related legislation
- Deterioration in recognition and decision practice across many origin countries
Sharp rise in follow-up applications
While first-time applications fell sharply, follow-up (subsequent) asylum applications rose strongly—up 161% to 55,307 in 2025. Much of this increase was driven by specific case developments, including court rulings affecting how certain protection claims are assessed, which led to renewed applications especially among nationals from Afghanistan.
3. Decisions, protection rates and procedures
The overall protection rate (the share of recognised protection outcomes) fell to 28.1 percent in 2025. Some groups experienced dramatic drops in recognition rates: Afghans fell from 93.3 percent in 2024 to 78.9 percent, and Iraqis saw their protection rate fall from 31.7 percent to 25.4 percent. These changes have drawn criticism from refugee advocacy organisations, which attribute the fall in recognition rates to a more restrictive policy stance.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall protection rate (2025) | 28.1% |
| Protection rate for Afghans (2024 → 2025) | 93.3% → 78.9% |
| Protection rate for Iraqis (2024 → 2025) | 31.7% → 25.4% |
| Follow-up applications (2025) | 55,307 (+161%) |
| Revocation reviews retaining status | 93% |
| Pending procedures end of 2025 | 101,606 (reduced from 111,050) |
Procedural outcomes also show important signals: about 93 percent of revocation reviews maintained the previously granted protection status, indicating that withdrawal of protection was comparatively rare in those review processes. At the same time the BAMF and courts face continued pressure from casevolume and shifting legal standards.
4. What this means and outlook
January 2026 shows a small uptick in first-time asylum applications after months of decline, but the broader pattern from 2025 remains dominant: far fewer new claims, higher numbers of follow-up applications, and a substantially lower protection rate than in previous years. For people seeking asylum, these trends mean a tougher recognition environment and more uncertainty. For policymakers and practitioners, it highlights the need to balance border and asylum-management policies with clear legal standards and fair decision-making.
Implications for stakeholders
- For applicants: more complex legal and procedural hurdles; a higher share of follow-up applications among returnees or those already in the system.
- For decision makers: continued workload pressure as pending cases were reduced but remain substantial (101,606 at the end of 2025).
- For civil society and legal advisers: increased need for legal support, especially where recognition practice has tightened.
Looking ahead, small monthly variations—like the January rise in first-time applications—can reverse quickly. Monitoring the BAMF decisions, protection rates, and the effects of court rulings will be important to understand whether the 2025 patterns persist, ease, or change in 2026. Clear, humane and legally consistent decision practice will be key to protecting rights while managing asylum procedures effectively.
